News summary
Domestic and foreign cotton prices rise this weekjonathanfisherjeopardyAffected by international favorable factors, cotton prices are expected to continue to rise in the future. Planting in the United States has been blocked, and cotton export contracts have surged. Cotton picking in Brazil has been delayed, India's exports have increased, and domestic supplies have been tight. The domestic market is facing upward resistance. Exports of textiles and garments have decreased year-on-year. The off-season of the market has affected cotton prices.
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Cotton prices at home and abroad are rising, and the market outlook is diversified
Last week, cotton market prices showed a general upward trend. The average price of the national cotton B index was 16353 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous week and 0.0% month-on-month.jonathanfisherjeopardy.8%。The main contract settlement price of Zhengzhou cotton futures was 15401 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.9%, a month-on-month increase of 281 yuan/ton. At the same time, the settlement price of the main contract for cotton futures in New York also rose to 78.81 cents/pound, an increase of 3.8%, a month-on-month increase of 2.85 cents/pound. However, the price of carded cotton yarn fell slightly, with the average price of 32 carded yarns falling by 28 yuan/ton to 22731 yuan/ton, while the average price of conventional outer yarn remained flat at 22531 yuan/ton.
Multiple factors in the international market have helped cotton prices rise
In the international market, multiple factors are expected to push cotton prices further. Due to adverse weather, cotton planting progress in the United States has been blocked. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that during the week from May 10 to 16, U.S. cotton export contracts climbed to 46,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30%. In addition, the slight increase in crude oil prices has led to a steady rise in domestic polyester staple fiber prices, providing certain support for cotton prices. The picking of Brazilian cotton was delayed and could not proceed as scheduled due to rainfall. The market was worried about the yield and quality of Brazilian cotton. The Cotton Association of India predicts that India's cotton exports in 2023/24 will increase by 27% year-on-year, which may lead to tight domestic supply. Cotton yarn production in Uzbekistan started well. From January to February, output increased by 23.8% year-on-year, indicating an increase in consumer demand.
The domestic market faces upward resistance
Although the international market is bullish, the domestic market still faces greater upward resistance. Xinjiang's major producing areas have good weather, excellent cotton growth conditions, and sowing work is progressing smoothly. If the summer weather continues to be normal, cotton yields are expected to exceed last year. However, data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that my country's textile and apparel exports in April 2024 were US$23.934 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%. Exports from September 2023 to April 2024 were US$187.946 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91%. The textile market has entered the traditional off-season, and cotton textile mills in some regions expect cotton yarn prices to continue to fall. The trend of small and medium-sized weaving factories in Foshan, Zhongshan and other places in Guangdong Province has become increasingly obvious. Rising shipping costs and U.S. restrictions on Xinjiang cotton products have also affected traders 'confidence in replenishing stocks, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.
