Main points of investment: alumina: alumina output decreased month-on-month in AprilFreedeuceswildvideopokernodownload, net export 2Freedeuceswildvideopokernodownload.20,000 tons. 1) supply: affected by ore shortage, April output 684Freedeuceswildvideopokernodownload.40000 tons, year-on-year-0.9%, month-on-month-3.2%, month-on-month operating rate is about 80.6%. 2) Import and export: April alumina net export 22000 tons, year-on-year-90000 tons /-132.1%, month-on-month-182000 tons /-113.8% January-April cumulative net imports of alumina 504000 tons, + 125.6% year-on-year. 3) profit: the price increase of alumina in April is less than that of bauxite, and the profit shrinks. The average profit of the industry is 520.0 yuan / ton, compared with-2.7%. Electrolytic aluminum: the net import of electrolytic aluminum in April was 206000 tons. 1) supply: April output was 3.514 million tons, year-on-year + 5.3%, month-on-month-2.2%, month-on-month operating rate was 95.4%; January-April electrolytic aluminum output was 14.061 million tons, an increase of 5.2% over the same period last year. 2) Import and export: the import quantity of electrolytic aluminum in April was 219000 tons (Russia 10.7 + India 2.5), compared with the same period last year, + 119000 tons / + 118.6%, month-on-month-31000 tons /-12.4%. The cumulative import quantity from January to April was 940000 tons, compared with the same period last year. + 618000 tons / + 191.9%. 3) profit: in April, the profit per ton of aluminum in the industry was 3483.2 yuan / ton, which was + 102.4% compared with the same period last year and + 38.9% compared with the previous month. Recycled aluminum: imports of scrap aluminum increased by 39.9% in April compared with the same period last year. 1) Import and export: the import quantity of scrap aluminum in April was 181000 tons (Malaysia 2.86 + Thailand 2.34 + Japan 2.19 + UK 1.85), compared with the same period last year, + 51000 tons / + 39.9%, month-on-month compared with-4000 tons /-2.4% par January-April cumulative import quantity 654000 tons, year-on-year + 135000 tons / + 26.1%) profit: East China aluminum fine waste price difference expanded, 1459.18 yuan / ton, month-on-month ratio + 35.8%. Aluminum: aluminum exports in April + 12.63% compared with the same period last year. 1) supply: China's aluminum output in April was 5.84 million tons, year-on-year + 8.2%. 2) Import and export: aluminum exports in April were 520000 tons, month-on-month ratio + 10000 tons / + 1.96%, year-on-year + 58300 tons / + 12.63% the cumulative export volume from January to April was 1.99 million tons, year-on-year + 151000 tons / + 8.2%. Demand: the apparent consumption of electrolytic aluminum in April is-3.2%. In April 24, the apparent consumption of electrolytic aluminum was 3.72 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of-3.2%. In terms of terminal consumption, the area newly started in April 24 was-24.6% compared with the same period last year, and the area completed was-20.4%. In April 2024, the output of new energy vehicles was 870000, which was + 359% compared with the same period last year. Photovoltaic production totaled 176.3 million kilowatt hours from January to April, with a total of + 18.2% compared with the same period last year. Investment suggestions: the supply at the mine end is tight, the downstream demand of electrolytic aluminum is tough, and the prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum resonate. In terms of alumina, although there are rumors of resumption of production in Shanxi and Henan, the recovery of mines is not good. At the same time, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has been released one after another, and the increase in demand will further lead to tight spot alumina and upward price shocks. In terms of electrolytic aluminum, on the supply side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia released production capacity this week, and supply continued to increase; on the demand side, the output of aluminum bar and aluminum plate enterprises all increased, mainly reflected in Gansu, Guangxi, Guizhou, Shandong and Henan, while real estate policies boosted downstream consumption sentiment; in terms of inventory, due to Russian aluminum hidden inventoryFreedeuceswildvideopokernodownloadThe release of LME inventory has greatly increased, while the domestic electrolytic aluminum remains low. We believe that short-term positive real estate policies occur frequently, pessimistic expectations that real estate is a drag on aluminum consumption are gradually repaired, and prices remain unchanged. In the medium to long term, domestic ceiling + energy shortage continues to disturb, while new energy demand remains exuberant. Tight balance makes aluminum prices easy to rise and difficult to fall. Individual stocks: the first is Chinalco, China Hongqiao, others recommend Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo shares, Yunnan Aluminum shares, pay attention to Nanshan Aluminum and other targets. Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected, electrolytic aluminum production capacity release over [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of the third party, does not represent the position of the information network. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.