Review of the gold market and main views:
Last week, gold continued its rally and hit a record high. London spot gold closed at 2,414crashnitrokart.50 US $/oz (week-on-week 2crashnitrokart.30%), domestic AU9999 gold closed at 561.44 yuan/gram (0.92% on a week-on-week basis). U.S. bond interest rates fell 8 basis points to 4.42%, and the downward trend continued.
The U.S. CPI data in April fell short of expectations, boosting confidence in interest rate cuts. CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, with the previous value of 3.5%; month-on-month 0.3%, lower than expectationscrashnitrokart0.4%. The core CPI was 3.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations, with the previous value of 3.8%; the month-on-month was 0.3%, lower than expectationscrashnitrokart0.4%. After the release of inflation data, interest rates on the US dollar and US bond continued their downward trend, forming fundamental support for gold.
Looking forward to the market outlook, after the inflation data comes into effect, we are optimistic about the value of gold investment. In terms of fundamentals, the overall economic indicators in the United States have weakened, and the May interest-rate meeting was biased, causing the U.S. bond interest rate to fall back at a high level, which is conducive to the gold pricing logic. Looking forward to the whole year, CME data shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to start a rate cut cycle in September. The Hua 'an Fund Index and Quantitative Investment Department is optimistic about the value of gold as the central bank's allocation of "de-dollarization" in the medium and long term.
The key signals that the gold ETF (518880) will focus on in the coming week: (1) University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index.
Comparison of the trend of RMB-denominated gold and international gold prices:
Source: Bloomberg, Huaan Fund, 2024/5/17
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