Midday closedapperlabsgames, the main domestic futures contract rose more than fell less. Shanghai silver closed its daily limit, with an increase of 8%, manganese silicon and soda ash rose more than 6%, international copper, container shipping index, and Shanghai copper rose more than 5%, and Shanghai nickel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and urea rose more than 4%. In terms of decline, peanuts fell more than 1%, and red dates, pigs, and eggs fell slightly.
Shanghai Bank has a daily limit across the board, and the market may continue to operate strongly in the short term
Everbright Futures Comments: On Monday, all Shanghai-based banking contracts averaged daily limit, with the main contract 2408 rising 8% to 8211 points, breaking through the pressure level and hitting a record high.
Judging from the market situation, last week, U.S. inflation data came into effect. The monthly adjusted core CPI rate fell for the first time in seven months in April. It has now fallen back to the low level since December 2023. The annual rate of core CPI without seasonally adjusted core CPI, the annual rate of non-seasonally adjusted CPI, and the monthly rate of core CPI after seasonally adjusted core CPI have all dropped from the previous value.
In addition, the current weak data may once again show that high interest rates are constraining the economy. Data showed that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in April, the U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index in May, and the monthly rate of industrial output in April all showed varying degrees of decline. The slight decline in CPI and the successive weakening of economic performance data have increased the market's confidence in the accelerated pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
On the whole, the market has increased its bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the U.S. economic data is showing signs of weakness, and the downward trend of the gold and silver ratio may not turn in the near future. In addition, the recent strong upward trend in copper has driven up expectations for economic recovery or boosted demand for the silver industry. Shanghai Bank may continue to operate strongly in the short term. However, it should be noted that the actual impact of the decline in inflation data in a single month on the Fed may be limited, so we should be wary of the impact of Fed officials 'biased statements on the market.
Be wary of copper prices breaking through previous highs and capital profits after emotions dissipatedapperlabsgamesCallback risk caused by closure
With the continuous fermentation of the macro warm wind and the market's risk of crowding COMEX copper, Shanghai copper broke through its historical high, while copper futures on the three major exchanges, including Lun Copper and COMEX Copper, also hit new highs in intraday trading on the 20th. A record high. In terms of inventories, due to reasons such as deteriorating import price ratios and insufficient arrival of imported goods, copper inventories in mainstream areas across the country have been slightly removed. However, the inventories of Luntong and COMEX copper remain in a de-warehouse state, which also provides inventory support to copper prices. At present, copper prices are relatively optimistic due to macro positive results. Regarding the future outlook of copper, we need to be vigilant about the correction risk caused by copper prices breaking through previous highs and profit-taking of some funds after the macro sentiment of market transactions gradually dissipates. On the demand side, market activity remains low as high copper prices inhibit the purchasing demand of copper downstream processing companies. After the subsequent release of warehouse receipts, the spot supply will be more abundant and is expected to continue to impact the premium premium. At the macro level, the market outlook also needs to pay attention to whether there are still favorable policies released in China such as automobiles and real estate, as well as information that affects the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, such as U.S. employment and the Federal Reserve's announcement of minutes of its monetary policy meeting. In addition, we need to be vigilant about the risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts.（SMM）