Recently, Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing and other first-and second-tier hot cities have introduced intensive new policies on the property market, which has aroused great concern in the market and triggered a sharp rise in the real estate sector in the capital market.
What is the reason for the intensive release of new policies in these core cities? Why did the central property market regulation and control turn? How will the property market policy be implemented in the next stage? A Chinese reporter from the Securities Times interviewed a number of people in the industry.
Industry insiders believe that the intensive introduction of new property market policies in hot cities is the implementation of the spirit of the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee. the main problem in the current real estate market is the large inventory of new and second-hand houses, and the central regulation and control ideas have shifted to focus on destocking. It is suggested that the following policies and measures of "digesting stock" and "optimizing increment" focus on controlling supply and speeding up removal, and coordinate the promotion of the land market, new housing and second-hand housing market, and call for more government financial support.
Various localities have launched a combination of policies.
According to the Securities Times brokerage Chinese reporter, since the end of April, Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an and other first-and second-tier hot cities have intensively optimized housing purchase restrictions. Among them, Beijing relaxed the 13-year purchase restriction policy, allowing three types of households or adult singletons to purchase one new commercial housing outside the Fifth Ring Road; Tianjin lifted the restrictions on the purchase of large new houses of more than 120 square meters by local residents, and relaxed the threshold for Beijing and Hebei to buy houses in Tianjin. The purchase restrictions in Shenzhen's seven districts have been relaxed, the social security and personal income tax payment requirements for people with non-deep household registration have been adjusted from three years to one year, families with many children registered in Shenzhen can buy one more house, and the housing purchase restrictions in Chengdu, Hangzhou and Xi'an have been completely abolished.
It is worth noting that in addition to measures such as optimizing housing purchase restrictions, the new policies of the property market in many hot cities have also clearly put forward measures to support "trade-in the old for the new", invigorate idle housing, and optimize land supply.
For example, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an and Guangzhou Huadu districts all support the "trade-in" of commercial housing. Among them, Shanghai, Wuxi and Guangzhou Huadu districts belong to the "help to sell" model, supplemented by certain preferential policies. Shenzhen, Wuhan and Xi'an not only "help sell", but also support the "acquisition" of housing enterprises or enterprises and institutions. Wuhan has further clarified the use after the acquisition, which will be used for market-oriented rental housing, indemnificatory rental housing and demolition and resettlement housing. In addition, Xi'an and Nanjing also propose to invigorate idle housing resources. Xi'an encourages micro-transformation of acquired housing sources for the operation of staff and workers' dormitories, home-style hotels, residential accommodation, and so on. Nanjing plans to appropriately rebuild or purchase existing housing for indemnificatory housing. In addition, Hangzhou also clearly proposed in the New deal to optimize the supply of residential land, optimize the mode of land supply and promote the balance between supply and demand for the areas with large housing supply and slow speed of removal.
As for the reasons for the introduction of such policies in hot cities, Cao Jingjing, general manager of the Index Research Department of the Middle Index Research Institute, said in an interview with a Chinese reporter from a securities firm of the Securities Times that after the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee made clear the direction of the property market policy, digesting the stock of real estate has become one of the policy starting points. Among the local policies and measures, the relaxation of purchase restrictions will help to speed up the entry of new demand into the market and promote the elimination of inventory. Supporting housing to "trade in the old for the new" and "trade in the old for the new" can, on the one hand, smooth the transaction chain of new and second-hand houses and promote the sale of new houses; on the other hand, the acquisition of second-hand housing by local platform companies for indemnificatory rental housing is also conducive to enriching the supply of guaranteed rental housing and speeding up the construction of a "market + security" housing supply system.
The idea of central regulation and control turns to destocking.
The intensive introduction of new policies on the property market by various localities on the one hand is related to the pressure on the elimination of the local property market, on the other hand, it is also the implementation of the spirit of the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.
On April 30, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed for the first time in the relevant statements on real estate that it is necessary to "study policies and measures to digest stock real estate and optimize incremental housing" for the first time, defining the idea of real estate regulation and control in the new stage and setting the tone for a new round of real estate market policies.
"the overall study of stock and increment indicates that the short-term policy orientation of real estate will be more focused on destocking." Cao Jingjing said in an interview with reporters.
Yuan Hao, chief analyst of Shen Wanhongyuan real estate industry, believes that from the recent local real estate policy mix, the thinking of real estate policy is changing, and the previous policy thinking is supply-side logic. rely on financing "three arrows", financing "whitelist" and other policies to stabilize financing, hoping to stabilize real estate enterprises to control risks Relying on the three major projects such as indemnificatory housing, the reconstruction of villages in the city, as well as measures such as guaranteed delivery to stabilize the investment, it is expected to hedge the physical workload to stabilize the economy, but the government's policy on the demand side of real estate is more of a backing policy. However, now the policy thinking has turned to demand-side logic, emphasizing destocking again after 9 years, and adopting more demand-side policies such as further relaxation of purchase restrictions and "trade-in", while reducing land supply to control the inventory demurrage cycle. destocking has become the current demand-side plan and goal. In terms of recent policy measures, the current real estate policy mix also follows the guidance of "destocking".
It has been made clear for the first time since the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in July last year.Pokervideos2021After the new situation in which great changes have taken place in the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market, and put forward for the first time to "timely adjust and optimize real estate policies and make good use of the policy toolbox", the central and local governments have issued a series of supporting policies from both sides of supply and demand. although there are certain results, from the data of the first quarter of this year, the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment.
With regard to the reasons for the change in the thinking of central real estate regulation and control, Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, said in an interview with a Chinese reporter from a securities firm of the Securities Times that because the current main problem is that the inventory of new and second-hand houses is too large, the digestion cycle is too long, and the two compete to reduce prices, affecting market expectations, and reasonable housing demand also begins to postpone. The sharp drop in developers' sales rebates, debt concentration and maturity superimposed delivery pressure, there is an urgent need to combine incremental and stock real estate, rather than local policy stimulus, so the policy tone has been adjusted.
The reporter noticed that, in fact, there were signs of policy thinking adjustment before the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April. At the end of March, Shanxi Province issued a special action plan to stabilize the market, prevent risks and promote transformation, among which many measures are aimed at "destocking", such as strengthening the dynamic adjustment of residential land supply. cities with long periods of digestion of commercial housing inventory, such as Taiyuan, Datong, Jincheng, Jinzhong and Xinzhou, should appropriately reduce the supply of residential land, control the listing rhythm of commercial housing, and support the destocking of non-residential commercial housing. Support the conversion of non-residential stock housing into indemnificatory rental housing; support the repurchase of stock commercial housing as guaranteed rental housing; guide the purchase of houses to "trade in the old" and explore the purchase of existing housing as indemnificatory rental housing through the acquisition of residents' original housing; and issue room tickets for the purchase of new houses, and so on.
The industry suggests more government funding support.
As for how to understand the "stock real estate" and "incremental housing" mentioned at the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Yin Zhong, director of the Real Estate Finance Research Center of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the securities times brokerage Chinese reporter that the stock real estate is mainly houses that have not yet been sold, while incremental housing refers to newly developed houses in the future. The corresponding policy measures to digest the stock of real estate are mainly to "trade the old for the new", and the measures to optimize incremental housing are mainly to relax purchase restrictions, price restrictions and so on.
"but in fact, the stock and the increment are also interrelated. Generally speaking, the current central regulation and control idea is to stimulate demand, reduce inventory, and optimize the operating environment of the entire market." Yin Zhongzhong told reporters.
As for the following policy recommendations, Yin Zhongzhong believes that in terms of solving the problems of the real estate market itself, it is actually this way of thinking that the government should pay to solve the liquidity difficulties of developers.
Li Yujia also told the Securities Times brokerage Chinese reporter that to solve the current real estate problems, we still need a combination of policies, such as shrinking land supply and starting construction in cities with large inventories, and implementing the transformation of old residential areas to improve the listing efficiency of the stock of housing. invigorate part of the complete housing supply for rent or allocation of indemnificatory apartment At the same time, it can match the support of purchasing power, promote active trading and stabilize market expectations.
In Cao Jingjing's view, policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing can be carried out around controlling supply and speeding up the elimination of housing, and can be promoted in the land market, new housing and second-hand housing market. The first is to rationally arrange land supply and link the new land supply with the housing digestion cycle, and the Ministry of Natural Resources has issued a clear policy guidance, and various localities are expected to flexibly adjust land supply in the light of local actual conditions; second, further lift the purchase restriction policy, speed up the entry of new demand into the market, and promote inventory removal. At present, there are still purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, Tianjin and other places, and it is suggested that all localities should continue to speed up the optimization of relevant policies; third, in this round of digesting the stock of real estate, indemnificatory housing is an important policy fulcrum, and it is necessary to continue to improve and implement supporting policies to turn the stock of real estate into indemnificatory housing. Second-hand housing "trade-in" and "trade-in" cities are expected to further expand, and the implementation of this model also needs more financial support from the state.
For the issue of funds, Guosheng Securities real estate industry analyst Jin Jing also believes that the follow-up direction of "digesting stock" may be to set up a unified platform for collection and storage. Whether it is the establishment of a unified platform by the central government, or the central government promotes the local government to set up a platform to collect storage, most of the funds still need to be solved at the central level, and it is difficult to rely solely on local finance.