Source Gangtise to invest in research
-- Manufacturing | Technology (9)--
[photovoltaic] analysts say the price of the industrial chain has been falling rapidly since 2024. According to PV InfoLink, the price of N-type TOPCon modules has risen from 0 in mid-early January.Bestcasinobonus.98 yuan / W reduced to the current 0.Bestcasinobonus.86 yuan / W, a decrease of 12%. According to the data of Silicon Industry Branch on May 15, the current price of polysilicon has broken through the cash cost of all enterprises in production, and the performance of the overall industry chain is under pressure. As the price of the industrial chain falls to the enterprise cost price, the space for the price of the industrial chain to decline further has been very limited. With the gradual improvement of the overall supply and demand pattern of the photovoltaic industry, the inflection point of fundamentals is expected to accelerate.
2023H1's European household inventory level is above 6GWh, equivalent to eight months of supply, while the industry's healthy inventory level is about three months, according to household energy storage analysts. European inventory destocking is expected to be more thorough by the end of 2024Q2 or the beginning of 2024Q3. At the same time, the market situation in Southeast Asia, Africa and South America is more optimistic, especially the Southeast Asian market has shown positive year-on-year growth since the beginning of 2024Q1.
[HJT battery] analysts revealed that the current 0BB technology has strengthened the HJT battery, and silver paste consumption is on a downward trend. HJT uses silver-coated copper technology, the current head of corporate silver consumption has been reduced to 8~9mg/W, the future is expected to be reduced to 3~4mg/W. At present, the silver content of TOPCon is about 11~12mg/W, and it is expected to be reduced to 8~9mg/W by the end of 2024, when the cost of HJT silver paste is about half of that of TOPCon. At present, the non-silicon cost of heterojunction is 40.5 points / W higher than that of Topcon, which is mainly due to the difference of target cost. If the price of silver paste continues to rise, the cost of HJT is expected to be equal to that of TOPCon. In addition, Tongwei Hefei 1GW HJT battery production capacity is reaching production, the market pays attention to its equipment operation and cost control.
[Vision Pro] analysts said Apple's Vision Pro sales in non-US markets have lagged behind and are expected to sell at the end of April or early May, later than expected. The product has been certified by China 3C, the certification date is May 13, the validity period is 5 years, and the expected price is about 30,000 yuan per unit.
[AIPC] experts predict that in the AIPC era, the memory capacity will increase from 16GB to 32GB or even higher, and new technologies for HBM and integrated chip memory may emerge, leading to major adjustments to computer architecture. In addition, SSD will face a doubling of growth demand, while cooling will face 50 per cent growth. It is estimated that the cost of AIPC will be 2040% higher than that of PC, and the main value increment comes from CPU, NPU, memory, storage and heat dissipation.
[optical module] analysts expect the overall permeability of 400g, 800g and 1.6T to rise to 30g by 2025. The demand for 400G and 800G has reached the order of 10 million in 2024, and it is expected that there will be a new demand of 1.6T in 2025.
The price of two-piece cans fell to a low in 2016, mainly due to a serious surplus on the supply side, analysts said. From 2016 to 2020, the competition pattern of the two-piece can industry has improved, and domestic enterprises began to acquire foreign-funded enterprises, but the supply side is still in surplus. In December 2023, Baosteel Packaging announced its tender offer for Cofco Packaging, and then Oruijin also issued an announcement on Cofco Packaging. if Cofco Packaging is successfully acquired, the concentration of the two-piece can industry will be enhanced. The bargaining power of the head enterprise is expected to improve, thus promoting the overall profitability of the industry, and the profit per can is expected to increase by 50%.
[intelligent Coal Mine] experts say that there are currently about 4300 coal mines in China, of which about 3600 are underground mines. The national policy is aimed at phasing out mines with lower production, and the number of domestic coal mines is expected to stabilize at 3300 to 3,400 by 2030. By 2023, more than 700 coal mines in China are carrying out intelligent construction, and it is estimated that nearly 1150 large and medium-sized mines will complete intelligent construction by 2025. At present, the corresponding production capacity of the intelligent mining face that has been built has reached nearly 60%. The annual scale of the national intelligent transformation market is about tens of billions of yuan, and the annual growth rate of the overall industry is between 15.2% and 20%.
[heavy truck] analysts said that in April, the insurance volume of heavy trucks was about 65000, the export volume was about 25000, the wholesale volume was about 82000, and the terminal inventory decreased by about 8000. Heavy truck sales in May are expected to be similar to those in April, and the market as a whole is relatively dull. First, the freight market has entered the off-season and freight rates remain low. Second, commercial vehicles' trade-in policy has not yet landed, and there is a wait-and-see mood in the market. Wholesale sales of heavy trucks are expected to be about 80, 000 units in May, and terminal inventory will be reduced by about 5000 units.
-- consumption | Medical and health care (3)--
[API] analysts said that API prices have experienced a 4-5-year decline cycle, the entire API prices are currently in the bottom range, the follow-up API sector may enter a new upward cycle, mainly due to the end of global medical terminal inventory clearance from 2022 to 2023, downstream demand is expected to recover, while domestic API companies are more cautious in capital expenditure. The overall gross profit margin of 2023Q4 API sector is 33.41%, which is lower than the same period last year and month-on-month.BestcasinobonusThe overall gross profit margin of the 2024Q1 API sector increased to 37.64%, an increase of 2.21pct over the same period last year, and an increase of about 4pct compared with the previous year. The gross profit margin of the listed companies of 2024Q1's main raw materials showed a trend of bottoming out.
[TV] according to analysts, global TV sales have remained at around 200m units since 2012. Structurally, it is still dominated by LCD TVs, with OLED TV penetration at around 3 per cent. The sales volume of TV in China is more than 31 million units in 2023, the sales volume continues to decline, and the average price continues to rise. since 2021, the Chinese TV industry has shown the characteristics of quantity reduction and price increase. The penetration rate of domestic Mini-LED televisions is close to 3% in 2023 and is expected to reach 5% in 2024. The penetration rate of domestic quantum dot TV reached 10.2% in 2023 and is expected to increase to 11.3% in 2024.
[express] analysts said that March to April is generally a small off-season for the express delivery industry, but the volume of express shipments from March to April in 2024 surpassed that of 2024Q4, with an increase of 22.7 per cent year on year and 1.6 per cent month-on-month in April. In April 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of express delivery volume was more obvious. The volume of Yunda, Shentong, Yuantong and SF Express increased by 32%, 29%, 24% and 6% respectively compared with the same period last year. In addition, the single ticket price of the express delivery industry in April was about 7.99 yuan, down 11.8 percent from the same period last year and 1.9 percent from the previous month.
-- Materials | Energy (7)
[copper] analysts say Freeport-McMoRan will reduce production in North America in 2023, and on this basis, it will continue to reduce production by about 40, 000 tons in 2024.BestcasinobonusKamola-Kakula copper mine is expected to be put into production with crude copper production capacity of 500000 tons and copper consumption of 1.2 million tons. In 2024, global refined copper production may increase by 710000 tons over the same period last year, a growth rate of 2.8 percent, which is lower than the expected 1.2-1.5 million tons, of which China will grow by 510000 tons and overseas by 200000 tons, while the global demand side will increase by 3.97 percent year-on-year. There is a large gap in the copper market.
[alumina] experts say that the recent rise in alumina prices is mainly due to tight supply: recently, electrolytic aluminum plants in Yunnan resumed production, and the demand for alumina increased by about 700000 tons in May; the amount of stopped production at the mine end was higher than that in the same period in previous years, resulting in a low operating rate of alumina in the early stage; futures fluctuated, arbitrageurs sought supply at high prices, and some alumina entered the futures delivery warehouse.
[rare earth] experts said that in the past, the inventory level of large enterprises downstream of NdFeB was generally about 2 months, but now, due to the guarantee of the long Association, the inventory level of large, small and medium-sized enterprises is basically within 1 month. The global output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is about 95000 tons in 2023, and it is expected to increase by 0.9-10 million tons in 2024, with a demand of about 100000 tons and a surplus of several thousand tons.
[titanium dioxide] experts said that before the end of April 2024, the inventory level of domestic titanium dioxide factories was less than one month, and the head enterprises basically had no inventory, and the current inventory has increased, but the pressure is not great; the inventory pressure of dealers is slightly greater, but it is basically controlled within one month, or even within half a month; downstream inventory is in 710 days.
[POY] analysts said that recently, with the price reduction and promotion of the POY industry, the price of POY150D/48F fell to 7250 yuan / ton, and the downstream began to copy the bottom, resulting in a substantial increase in shipments. On May 19, the industry production and sales volume was 200%, compared with 400% on the 20th. POY inventory dropped from 28 days to 22 days in only 2 days. POY inventory dropped from 28 days to 22 days. From 21th to 22nd, the price of the head enterprise began to rise, POY150D/48F rose to 7900 yuan / ton, the profit was about 400 yuan / ton, the profit of small and medium-sized enterprises was 7400 yuan / ton, the profit was about 250 yuan / ton.
[natural rubber] analysts said that 2024 is the starting point of the natural rubber bull market, natural rubber prices will gradually rise, mainly due to the gradual expansion of the growth gap between supply and demand of natural rubber, and the cost of natural rubber will gradually rise. On the supply side, the global planting area of natural rubber has stagnated, the subsequent increase of planting area is limited, the rubber tapping rate of the main producing country (Thailand) may have reached the upper limit, and the release space of the whole natural rubber per unit area is limited in the later stage. On the demand side, global natural rubber demand is growing at an annualised rate of 20.3%. From the cost point of view, labor costs in the main producing countries are gradually rising, and the EU Zero deforestation Act raises the global cost of rubber.
[coal] analysts say a mine accident in Heilongjiang on May 20, 2024 involved nine production workers, five of whom were killed, leading to increased security checks across the province. It is expected that the price of thermal coal will exceed 1000 yuan / ton in September. If hydropower is not ideal, its price may exceed 1100 yuan / ton, while coking coal may reach 3000 yuan / ton.
-- Finance | Infrastructure (5)--
[real estate] experts said that the sales area of new homes in 30 cities, which were mainly monitored, increased for two consecutive weeks after the May Day holiday, and the market activity improved to a certain extent after the introduction of the policy, but at present, the overall situation of new housing restoration is not so obvious. In the first three weeks of May, the transaction volume of second-hand housing around key cities dropped by about 10% compared with the same period last year. At present, driven by price-for-volume, the market is still active to a certain extent. On the whole, the pace of repair of second-hand houses this year is better than that of new houses, and the situation is still continuing.
[real estate-Beijing] experts said that from May 1 to May 19, the average daily turnover of new and second-hand houses in Beijing decreased by 40% and 15% respectively compared with the same period in April, and the decline of second-hand houses was much smaller than that of new houses, according to Fangxia APP data. Excluding the impact of the May Day holiday, the average daily turnover of new houses in Beijing fell by about 40% from May 6 to May 19 compared with the same period last year, with little change, while the decline in second-hand housing was only about 4%. After the May Day holiday, the performance of second-hand housing is relatively good, and the overall transaction scale is stable at a certain high level.
[real estate-Shenzhen] according to Fangxia APP data, the average daily turnover of new homes in Shenzhen fell by about 4 per cent from May 7 to May 19 compared with the same period in April, while the average daily turnover of second-hand houses increased by 11 per cent compared with the same period in April, and the trend of year-on-year repair continued. In 2024, the overall real estate market in Shenzhen is more active, and the market is in the process of mild repair.
[real estate-Hangzhou] analysts said that the average number of second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou has stabilized at more than 4000 units per month from January to April. After the purchase restrictions were completely lifted in Hangzhou on May 9, the number of second-hand housing transactions increased month-on-month from May 10 to May 13. If the average daily transaction number of second-hand housing is maintained at more than 134units from May 22nd to May 30th, it is expected that the average monthly transaction number of second-hand housing in Hangzhou will exceed 4000 units in May.
[real estate-Nanjing] experts said that as of May 20, the number of applicants for "trade-in" in Nanjing had exceeded 3600 groups, more than 1600 groups had been effectively registered, and the number of intended subscriptions for new houses was close to 200. the enthusiasm of residents to participate was relatively high.