CopperPspcrashbandicoot:
Overnight copper fell sharply by 3. 5%Pspcrashbandicoot.94 per cent to $10396 per tonne; comex copper fell 5.99 per cent to 4.8cents per pound; and Shanghai copper fell 2.79 per cent to 84260 yuan per ton. Import losses have narrowed sharply, but they are still large. On the macro front, the minutes of the Fed meeting show that due to poor inflation data in the first quarter, the Fed will observe the data for longer before it is more confident that inflation will fall to its target. Another official said that if inflation reignited, interest rates would be further raised. The minutes of this Fed meeting expressed unusually hawkish views and continued to depress market confidence in cutting interest rates. On the domestic side, steady growth is still the tone, whether it is the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds or local real estate policies continue to boost market sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, demand continues to be weak under high copper prices, and domestic social inventory statistics are still increasing. Commodity markets were volatile last night, with precious metals and non-ferrous prices weakening one after another, showing caution about the current overheated upward momentum, although there is an intention to correct, but combined with the negative feedback from recent high copper prices, it is necessary to prevent this round of market from entering the possibility of medium-term adjustment. Pay attention to the change of the position in the COME and LME markets. If the position weakens rapidly, it may represent that the early bulls begin to make a profit and stop profit; if the position is stable, the price may have a big repetition.
Nickel & stainless steel:
Overnight LME nickel fell 4.42%, while Shanghai nickel fell 2.54%. On the inventory side, LME nickel stocks increased by 2016 tons to 84090 tons yesterday, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 20797 tons. From the point of view of the discount, the LME0-March discount remained negative, while the imported nickel discount rose 100 yuan / ton to-450 yuan / ton. In news, Indonesia announced the benchmark price for domestic trade in nickel mines in May. According to the Indonesian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate and Geophysics, a 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck near Indonesia's North Sulawesi province at 12:49 local time on May 22nd. In terms of stainless steel, there is more disturbance at the end of the overseas nickel mine, and the cost support of stainless steel is strong, but the downstream performance is weak and the willingness to purchase is weak. as of last week, the social inventory of 78 samples was 1.0638 million tons, up 0.3% from the previous week. In terms of the new energy industry chain, the production of ternary precursors is expected to decrease month-on-month in May, and according to a survey conducted by Baichuan Yingfu, the production schedule of ternary materials decreased again in May, with an estimated 59000 tons in May, a decrease of 11.2% compared with the previous month, and the demand for nickel sulfate may be weak. however, its cost side is still running strong for the time being. Under the influence of the macro environment superimposed by the industrial chain's own disturbances and contradictions, the whole will still be high shock.
Alumina & electrolytic aluminum:
Overnight alumina concussion is weak, overnight AO2406 closed at 4030 yuan / ton, down 3.52%, positions increased by 1489 to 130500 hands. Shanghai aluminum concussion is weak, overnight AL2406 closed at 21040 yuan / ton, down 1.64%. Reduce the position by 20292 hands and 277700 hands. Spot aspect, SMM alumina comprehensive price continues to rise to 3773 yuan / ton. Spot aluminum ingots expanded to 250 yuan / ton discount, Foshan A00 quoted a discount of 50 yuan / ton, Wuxi A00 quoted a discount of 50 yuan / ton, downstream aluminum rod processing fees in Linyi, Henan Province, stable, Baotou, Guangdong, Wuxi, Xinjiang, down 40-110 yuan / ton; aluminum rod 1A60 down 50 yuan / ton, 6speed 8 series processing fees increased by 372 yuan / ton; aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 increased by 100 yuan / ton, A356 and ZLD102/104 increased by 350 yuan / ton. Rio Tinto announced force majeure over the delivery of two alumina plants in Australia, triggering a daily limit for multiple contracts. The impact of this incident on the news side as a whole is greater than the actual impact, and it is expected that the disk may fall back as the mood is released. At present, the discount range of alumina spot is still high, and it can still maintain the thinking of current price upward and futures price adjustment in the short term. Sustainable attention to this incident involves the recovery time of two alumina plants, focusing on the progress of domestic mine resumption. Electrolytic aluminum downstream gradually increase acceptance of high prices, macro expectations to help overall consumption is still resilient, superimposed social treasury continued a small decline to continue to boost aluminum prices, waiting for real estate-related policies to ferment, pay attention to the upstream recovery progress incremental impact.
Tin:
The main force of Shanghai tin fell 1.76% to 273950 yuan / ton, and tin futures warehouse receipts were 17416 tons, a decrease of 111tons from the previous day. LME tin fell 1.52% to US $33585 / ton, while tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 4945 tons. Spot market, for 2406, Yunxi Shengshui 0100 yuan / ton, Yunzi discount 200,300 yuan / ton, small brand discount 600,800 yuan / ton, import discount 800,900 yuan / ton. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-1000 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-920 yuan / ton, Shanghai-London ratio 8.16. The turnover of 5x22 Indonesian JFX is 150 tons, and the turnover of 5Universe 21 Indonesian ICDX is 50 tons. In May, the cumulative turnover of the two major exchanges is 1725 tons. Global tin inventories began to accumulate at the same time, and the fundamentals became weaker. However, the current price valuation is still anchored in the supply disturbance, follow-up attention to the resumption of production in Indonesia, if not continue to recover less than expected. It is expected that the range of tin price correction is limited, the overall price will be in a volatile trend. The recent market sentiment fluctuates greatly, the volatility rises to the high level, pay attention to the position control.
Zinc:
The main force of zinc in Shanghai fell 1.43% to 24535 yuan / ton, and zinc futures warehouse receipts were 82256 tons, an increase of 1844 tons over the previous day. LME zinc fell 2.11% to US $3057.0 / tonne, while zinc stocks decreased by 900t to 257625 tonnes. In the spot market, the contract discount of Shanghai Zinc to 2406 is around 100,120yuan / ton, and the average price is flat; the contract discount of Guangdong Zinc to Shanghai Zinc 2407 is 190,210yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai; the discount of Tianjin Zinc to 2406 is around 70,100 yuan / ton, and the price of Tianjin is 20 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-90 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-70 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 8.03. Domestic real estate end favorable policies are frequent, zinc terminal demand is expected to improve, coupled with the tight domestic mineral supply, smelting production is limited, the balance of zinc supply and demand is expected to improve. While overseas high prices stimulate the recovery of mine supply one after another, at the same time drive smelting enterprises to resume production, overseas supply surplus continues, can continue to pay attention to zinc internal and external anti-sleeve strategy. The recent market sentiment fluctuates greatly, the volatility rises to the high level, pay attention to the position control.
Industrial silicon:
On the 22nd, the industrial silicon shock was strong. The main force 2407 closed at 12340 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.98%, and the position increased by 3424 lots to 119,100 lots. Spot prices continued to stabilize, with Baichuan's reference price of 13335 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the price range of #553 is stable at 12,700 - 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price range of #421 is stable at 13,350 - 13,950 yuan/ton. The lowest delivery price is 11600 yuan/ton for #421, and the spot discount has been expanded to 640 yuan/ton. There has been no significant improvement in demand for dual silicon terminals. Although downstream willingness to receive goods has been partially improved, the overall procurement scale is not high and the pressure on warehouse receipts flowing into the spot is compounded by the pressure on silicon factories to sell goods in the future. As the government encourages enterprises to resume production and Southwest's power costs are reduced, Southwest Silicon Plant has once again shown its willingness to resume production, and there is still downward pressure on fundamentals. Since silicon prices are at relatively low levels during the month, there is little room for downward growth in the short term, or they have entered a stage of rebound. It is recommended to moderately limit profits and leave the market and not excessively chase short.
Lithium carbonate:
Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2407 contract fell 0.79% to 106,000 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 106,900 yuan/ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained at 102,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide fell by 500 yuan/ton to 97,200 yuan/ton, with a basis difference of about 500 yuan/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts increased by 515 tons to 24373 tons yesterday. In the news, according to a survey by Baichuan Yingfu in May, some cathode companies lowered their production expectations. The production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in May is expected to be 234,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6% month-on-month, a slight decrease from the expectation at the beginning of the month, and roughly the same as the production forecast in April, but there is a trend of weakening in the later period; the production schedule of ternary materials has decreased again, and May is expected to be 59,000 tons, a decrease of 11.2% month-on-month. The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to be 80,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.5%; the battery cell factory will be affected by overproduction in the early stage, and there will be a certain accumulation of stocks. Now it mainly absorbs spot stocks, and its willingness to reserve stocks has declined, resulting in delayed delivery of goods. Data from the Passenger Transport Association shows that from May 1 to 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market were 412,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 26% year-on-year and a 10% increase from the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales of 2.863 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32%. On the supply side, supply increased in many aspects in May, output + import volume is expected to grow rapidly, and weekly output continues to increase month-on-month. On the demand side, demand for cathode materials has dropped month-on-month. With the increase in customer supply and corporate inventory management problems, the overall acceptance of high-priced goods is not high. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weakening, and the short-term price may weaken slightly. Pay attention to whether there are new drivers in the market.
